> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.skepsis.live/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Introduction

> Skepsis is a continuous-outcome prediction market. Price the range a number lands in, not a yes or no.

## What Skepsis is

Skepsis is a continuous-outcome prediction market. Instead of yes or no, you price the range a number lands in. A tighter range pays more, because it is harder to hit.

Binary markets price direction. They pay nothing when the number lands a tick off the strike. Skepsis prices magnitude, so the payoff scales with how close you are. That gap, between the outcome you priced and the outcome that paid, is basis risk. Skepsis closes it.

> Price the number, not the direction.

## One worked example

Bitcoin is at \$95,000. You expect it to close the month between \$98,000 and \$99,000.

|                 | Binary market               | Skepsis                     |
| --------------- | --------------------------- | --------------------------- |
| The question    | Will BTC close above \$97k? | Where does BTC close?       |
| Your position   | Yes                         | Range: \$98k to \$99k       |
| Outcome \$120k  | You win the same            | You do not win              |
| Outcome \$98.5k | You win                     | You win, and precision paid |

On the binary, "stops at \$98.5k" is priced the same as "runs to \$120k". Skepsis pays for being right about how much.

At a uniform prior, a band covering a tenth of the likely range pays about ten times your stake, because it is harder to hit. Precision is the edge.

<Frame caption="Binary pays a step. Skepsis pays a continuous curve.">
  <img src="https://mintcdn.com/skepsis-b5886b27/39d-1_qGNp_KVjED/images/basis-risk.svg?fit=max&auto=format&n=39d-1_qGNp_KVjED&q=85&s=1af2abfd52d1deed15c8e7b130e0aebe" alt="Binary step payoff versus Skepsis continuous payoff" width="720" height="420" data-path="images/basis-risk.svg" />
</Frame>

## Two ideas to take away

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Every range is tradable" icon="chart-line" href="/for-traders/market-types">
    Range, time, and one-of-N options markets, priced on one continuous curve. Any number you have a view on.
  </Card>

  <Card title="One vault behind every market" icon="building-columns" href="/for-lps/vault-overview">
    A single ERC-4626 vault seeds every market and recycles capital on resolution. No dead pools.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

## The essentials

* Chain: Arbitrum Sepolia. Resolution: Chainlink, numerical and time-gated.
* Pricing: LMSR over a bucket tree. Positions: ERC-1155. Liquidity: one ERC-4626 vault.
* A curated set of live markets across crypto and macro. Numerical outcomes only.
* Private beta. Access opens in waves.

<Card title="Start trading" icon="arrow-right" href="/overview/quick-start">
  Claim test USDC and take your first position. About a minute.
</Card>