Skepsis vs binary markets

Binary markets price whether an event happens. Skepsis prices how much, on a continuous range. Different question, different payoff.

	Binary market	Skepsis
Question	Will X happen (yes/no)	Where does the number land (range)
Payoff	Fixed, on direction	Scales with precision: N / k at uniform prior
A near miss	Wins the same as a blowout	Pays only for the band that hits
Range exposure	Stack many binaries; liquidity fragments	One curve, shared liquidity
One-of-N choice	N separate yes/no books	One market, N options, shared depth
Hedging fit	Basis risk vs real exposure	Hedge the band the exposure lives in
Resolution	Varies, some discretionary	Chainlink numerical feed, time-gated
Listing	Often permissionless	Curated

When binary is the right tool

If your view really is binary, will this happen or not, a binary market fits. Skepsis is for outcomes that are numbers, where direction is not the whole story and magnitude is the point.

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Skepsis vs binary markets

When binary is the right tool

​When binary is the right tool

When binary is the right tool