Skip to main content
How continuous markets compare to the platforms you already know.

​
The Core Difference

Every major prediction platform today (Polymarket, Kalshi, sportsbooks) forces you into binary choices. “Will X happen?” Yes or No. Skepsis asks a different question: “Where will X be?” 
Binary market:     "Will BTC hit $100K?"  → Yes / No
Skepsis market:    "Where will BTC be?"   → Pick your range
One gives you a coin flip. The other gives you a sniper scope.

​
The “Almost Right” Problem

You’ve done the research. You’re confident BTC will be around $99K by Friday.

​
On a Binary Platform

"Will BTC > $100K by Friday?"
BTC on Friday: $99,500

Result: You LOSE
Reality: You were basically right

​
On Skepsis

"Where will BTC be Friday?"
Your range: $98K - $101K
BTC on Friday: $99,500

Result: You WIN
Reality: Your prediction was accurate, and you got paid for it
Binary markets punish near-misses. Skepsis rewards accuracy.

​
Information: One Number vs Full Picture

​
What Binary Tells You

"BTC > $100K?" = 47% Yes

You know: Roughly half think it crosses $100K
You don't know: Will it be $100,001 or $200,000?
                 How confident is the crowd?
                 What about $95K? $90K?

​
What Skepsis Tells You

"Where will BTC be?"

$80K-$90K:    5%
$90K-$95K:    12%
$95K-$100K:   25%
$100K-$105K:  30%  ← Most likely
$105K-$110K:  18%
$110K+:       10%

Expected value, confidence interval, tail risk: all visible.
One Skepsis market replaces dozens of binary questions.

​
Expressing Complex Views

Want to bet “BTC stays between $95K and $105K”?

​
Binary Platforms

Step 1: Find "BTC > $95K?" market → Buy Yes
Step 2: Find "BTC > $105K?" market → Buy No
Step 3: Hope both markets exist and have liquidity
Step 4: Manage two positions
Step 5: Pay fees twice

​
Skepsis

Step 1: Select $95K-$105K range
Step 2: Place bet
Done.
Same view. One transaction. One fee. One position.

​
The House Edge Question

​
Traditional Betting (Sportsbooks, Casinos)

Sports betting: 4-10% house edge
Casino games:   1-15% house edge
Lottery:        40-50% house edge

You need to overcome the house edge just to break even.
The house always wins long-term.

​
Binary Prediction Markets (Polymarket, Kalshi)

Platform fee: 1-7%
Liquidity depends on market makers
Some markets have wide spreads
Better than sportsbooks, but still extractive

​
Skepsis

Trading fee: 0.3%-1% (varies by risk category)
LMSR guarantees liquidity, always
No house edge. Prices set by market participants
Your edge = your information advantage
If you’re right more than the market expects, you profit. Period.

​
Payouts: Variable vs Locked

​
Parimutuel / Traditional

You bet $100 on Horse A at "5x odds"
1,000 others also bet Horse A
Final odds: 2.5x. Your payout got cut in half.

​
Binary Markets

Buy Yes at $0.47
Market moves, Yes now at $0.52
You can sell for profit, or hold to resolution
But your final payout depends on when you act

​
Skepsis

You buy shares at 5x odds
1,000 others bet the same range after you
Your payout: Still 5x

Locked in at bet time. No surprises. Ever.

​
Side-by-Side

Traditional BettingBinary MarketsSkepsis
Question formatSpread/over-underYes/NoWhere exactly?
House edge5-15%1-7%0.3%-1% fee
Who sets oddsBookmakerMarket makersLMSR algorithm
Payout timingVariableAt resolutionLocked at bet time
InformationHiddenSingle probabilityFull distribution
LiquidityVariesOrder book dependentAlways available
Skill ceilingLow-MediumMediumHigh
CustodyCentralizedVariesSelf-custody

​
When to Use What

Your NeedBest Fit
”Will [candidate] win?”Binary market
”What will [price] be?”Skepsis
”Will [event] happen?”Binary market
”When will [event] happen?”Skepsis
”What will [metric] be?”Skepsis
Sports entertainmentSportsbook
Expressing a precise thesisSkepsis

​
The Bottom Line

Binary markets are blunt instruments. Great for elections and yes/no questions. But if you have a specific, high-conviction thesis about where something will land, not just whether it crosses a line, you’re leaving money on the table every time you use them. Skepsis pays you for precision.

​
Try It

Make a continuous prediction: Launch Skepsis →