Proven approaches to improve your Skepsis predictions.
🧪 Practice risk-free on testnet. Test these strategies with free USDC. Sign in with Google (gas sponsored) or connect your Sui wallet.
Core Strategies
Concept: Trade when you know something the market doesn’t.
When to use:
- Breaking news not yet priced in
- Domain expertise (you work in the industry)
- Local knowledge (weather, events)
Example:
You see a credible leaker post "GPT-5 demo next week"
Market still shows Feb-March as most likely
You bet on next week's range before others react
2. The Contrarian 🔄
Concept: Bet against the crowd when they’re overreacting.
When to use:
- Market moved sharply on emotional news
- Herd mentality is visible
- Fundamentals haven’t changed
Example:
BTC drops 2% on random FUD tweet
1-hour market probabilities shift dramatically
You bet on recovery (mean reversion)
3. The Safe Player 🛡️
Concept: Wide ranges, high win rate, small but consistent gains.
When to use:
- New to the platform
- Building bankroll
- High liquidity markets
Example:
BTC at $97,000
You bet on $94,000 - $100,000 (huge range)
Odds: 1.3x
Win rate: ~85%
Small but consistent profit
4. The Sniper 🎯
Concept: Very narrow ranges, high conviction bets.
When to use:
- Strong analytical edge
- Specific catalyst known
- Small position size (it’s risky!)
Example:
Apple earnings after hours
You calculate likely price impact: +$3-5
You bet on very narrow post-earnings range
Odds: 15x
Either big win or total loss
5. The Hedger 🔀
Concept: Use predictions to offset real-world risk.
When to use:
- You have exposure to an outcome
- Want to reduce variance
- Not trying to profit, trying to protect
Example:
You're getting married outdoors Saturday
Good weather = great wedding, no bet payout
Bad weather = rough wedding, BUT you win $500
Outcome: You're happy either way
Advanced Strategies
The Barbell Strategy 📊
Split your capital between safe bets and long shots.
Total budget: $100
70%: Safe bet (1.5x odds, ~65% prob)
$70 → potential $105
30%: Long shot (8x odds, ~12% prob)
$30 → potential $240
Outcomes:
- Safe wins: +$35 (net profit)
- Long shot wins: +$170 (big win!)
- Both win: +$205 (jackpot!)
- Both lose: -$100 (max loss)
The Bracket Strategy 🎾
Cover multiple adjacent ranges with decreasing amounts.
Center bet: $50 on $96K-$97K (3x odds)
Edge bet 1: $25 on $95K-$96K (4x odds)
Edge bet 2: $25 on $97K-$98K (4x odds)
You're betting on "around $96K-$97K" with coverage
Outcomes:
- Center hits: Win $150, lose $50 → +$100
- Edge hits: Win $100, lose $75 → +$25
- Miss: Lose $100
The Fade Strategy 🔻
Bet against ranges that look overpriced.
Market shows BTC $100K-$101K at 25% probability
Your analysis: More like 15%
You don't bet ON $100K-$101K
You bet on everything else (or specific alternatives)
If $100K-$101K is truly overpriced,
adjacent ranges are underpriced
Time Decay Strategy ⏰
Exploit how probabilities shift as resolution approaches.
Date market for product launch, 3 months out:
- All monthly ranges ~equal probability
- Uncertainty is high
As time passes without news:
- Near-term ranges get less likely
- Far-term ranges get more likely
If you believe "probably later than people think":
Bet on later ranges early, get good odds
Strategy Selection Guide
| Your Situation | Recommended Strategy |
|---|
| New to Skepsis | Safe Player |
| Have specific knowledge | Information Edge |
| Think crowd is wrong | Contrarian |
| High confidence view | Sniper |
| Real-world exposure | Hedger |
| Want balanced risk | Barbell |
| Afraid of near-misses | Bracket |
Common Mistakes to Avoid
❌ Over-betting Favorites
Range at 60% probability, 1.67x odds
"It's probably going to win!"
Bet 50% of bankroll
Problem: 40% of the time you lose half your money
Fix: Size positions appropriately
❌ Revenge Trading
Lost $100 on a bet
Immediately bet $200 to "make it back"
Lost again
Bet $400...
Fix: Take a break. Stick to your strategy.
❌ Ignoring Liquidity
Found 20x odds on a range
Tried to bet $1000
Slippage ate 30% of expected odds
Fix: Check liquidity before large bets
❌ Analysis Paralysis
Spent 2 hours analyzing a 1-hour market
Market closed before you decided
OR: bet based on outdated analysis
Fix: Timebox decisions proportional to market duration
Bankroll Management
The 1-5% Rule
Never bet more than 1-5% of your total bankroll on a single prediction.
Bankroll: $1,000
Max single bet: $10-50
Why: Even great strategies lose sometimes
10 losses in a row shouldn't wipe you out
The Kelly Criterion (Simplified)
Optimal bet size based on edge:
Bet % = (Your prob - Market prob) / (Odds - 1)
Example:
Market: 4x odds (25% implied)
Your estimate: 35%
Edge: 10%
Bet % = (0.35 - 0.25) / (4 - 1) = 3.3% of bankroll
Developing Your Edge
Track Everything
Log each bet:
- Market
- Your reasoning
- Range selected
- Odds received
- Outcome
- Profit/loss
Review weekly:
- Where are you winning?
- Where are you losing?
- Is your strategy working?
Specialize First
Don't try to be good at everything
Pick one market type:
- Short-term BTC? Master that.
- Tech product dates? Own that niche.
- Local weather? Become the expert.
Then expand.
Paper Trade First
New strategy? Test it without real money.
Track theoretical bets for 2 weeks.
Did it work? Go live.
Didn't work? Iterate.
Next Steps
