Strategies - Skepsis

These are mechanics, not advice. Markets carry real risk.

Precision

Take the tightest band you can defend. Highest payoff, lowest hit rate. Best when you have a specific level in mind and the crowd is spread out.

Spread

Take a wider band across several buckets. Lower payoff, higher hit rate. Best when you have a direction and a rough zone but not an exact level.

Early conviction

Trade before the crowd converges. Early, the distribution is flat and your band is cheaper, so the same outcome pays more. Alpha decay also makes early trades lower-impact. See alpha decay.

Close early

You do not have to hold to resolution. If the curve moves your way, close the position at the better price and lock the move. See placing a trade.