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A story of how Sarah, Marcus, and Charlie predicted Bitcoin’s next move.

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The Setup

It’s 2:00 PM on a Tuesday. Bitcoin is trading at $96,450, and Skepsis has a market:
“Where will BTC/USD be at 3:00 PM UTC?” Range: $94,000 - $100,000
Resolution: 1 hour
Current Liquidity: $10,000 USDC
The probability distribution looks like this: 
$94,000 - $95,000:  3%   ░░
$95,000 - $96,000:  12%  ░░░░░
$96,000 - $97,000:  35%  ░░░░░░░░░░░░░░  ← Current price zone
$97,000 - $98,000:  28%  ░░░░░░░░░░░
$98,000 - $99,000:  15%  ░░░░░░
$99,000 - $100,000: 7%   ░░░
Three traders see opportunity.

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The Traders

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🎯 Sarah: The Range Player

Sarah is a part-time crypto investor. She’s watched Bitcoin all morning and believes it will stay relatively stable—maybe drift slightly up. Her thesis: “BTC will stay between $96,500 and $97,500. The market is too calm for big moves.” Her bet:
  • Range: $96,500 - $97,500
  • Investment: $100 USDC
  • Odds received: 3.2x
  • Potential payout: $320 if correct
Sarah knows her range is in the “popular zone” so odds aren’t huge, but she’s confident.

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📉 Marcus: The Contrarian

Marcus follows macro news. He just saw a headline about potential Fed comments and thinks there might be a small dip. His thesis: “There’s going to be a quick selloff. BTC drops to $95K-$96K before recovering.” His bet:
  • Range: $95,000 - $96,000
  • Investment: $150 USDC
  • Odds received: 8.3x
  • Potential payout: $1,245 if correct
Marcus is betting against the crowd. Lower probability means better odds—but higher risk.

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🎰 Charlie: The Sniper

Charlie is a day trader who watches order books obsessively. He noticed unusual buy pressure building and thinks a quick pump is coming. His thesis: “Whales are accumulating. We’re going to see $98K+ within the hour.” His bet:
  • Range: $98,000 - $98,500 (narrow range)
  • Investment: $50 USDC
  • Odds received: 12x
  • Potential payout: $600 if correct
Charlie’s taking a high-risk, high-reward approach with a very narrow range.

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The Hour Passes

2:15 PM: BTC dips to $96,200. Marcus feels validated. Sarah’s not worried. 2:30 PM: BTC recovers to $96,600. Sarah’s looking good. 2:45 PM: Suddenly, buying pressure. BTC jumps to $97,100. 2:55 PM: Another push. $97,400… $97,600… $97,800… 3:00 PM - Resolution: BTC closes at $97,650

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The Results

TraderRangeResultOutcome
Sarah$96,500 - $97,500❌ LOSE$97,650 was just above her range
Marcus$95,000 - $96,000❌ LOSEPrice never dropped that far
Charlie$98,000 - $98,500❌ LOSEClose, but didn’t quite reach
Plot twist: Nobody won this round. The outcome landed in $97,500 - $98,000—a range that had ~20% probability but none of our traders bet on.

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The Lessons

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1. Edge Cases Happen

Sarah was only $150 away from winning. In binary markets, she’d have been right (“BTC stays under $98K”). Here, precision matters.

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2. The Crowd Isn’t Always Wrong

The distribution showed $96K-$98K as most likely (~78% combined). The outcome landed right in that zone—just not where our traders specified.

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3. Risk/Reward Trade-offs

TraderRisk StyleOddsOutcome
SarahConservative3.2xNarrow miss
MarcusContrarian8.3xWrong direction
CharlieHigh-risk sniper12xClose but no cigar

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4. You Can Always Hedge

If Sarah had split her $100 into two bets:
  • $70 on $96,500 - $97,500 (3.2x)
  • $30 on $97,500 - $98,500 (5x)
She would have won $150 on the second bet, netting +$50 overall.

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What Would You Have Bet?

Looking at that distribution, where would you have placed your range? The beauty of continuous markets: there’s no single “right” answer—just different risk/reward profiles for different beliefs.

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Try It Yourself

Bitcoin markets run continuously on Skepsis. Every hour is a new opportunity.
Try it free on testnet. Sign in with Google, claim test USDC, and place your first BTC prediction in 2 minutes. No real money, no gas fees.Launch Skepsis →

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