Skepsis vs Traditional Betting

Sports betting: 4-10% house edge (vig/juice)
Casino games: 1-15% house edge
Lottery: 40-50% house edge

Example - Football spread:
Both sides at -110 odds
You need to win 52.4% to break even
Bookmaker profits regardless of outcome

Fee: 0.3% flat (just transaction cost)
Prices set by: Other traders, not a house
Your edge: Your information advantage

If you're right more than the market expects,
you profit. Period.

Bookmaker sets lines → You take or leave
Lines designed to: Balance action, guarantee house profit
Your influence: None (you're price taker)

Market sets prices → Based on all bets
Prices designed to: Reflect collective wisdom
Your influence: Every bet moves the market

What you see:
- Odds for your bet
- Maybe recent line movements

What's hidden:
- How odds were calculated
- Sharp vs square money
- True probabilities
- House position

What you see:
- Full probability distribution
- All historical bets (on-chain)
- Exact calculation methodology
- Current pool balance
- Fee structure

Nothing hidden. All verifiable.

Horse racing example:
You bet $100 on Horse A at 5-1 odds
Lots of others also bet Horse A
Final odds: 3-1 (your payout decreased!)

You thought you'd win: $500
You actually win: $300

You bet $100 on range at 5x odds
Others bet on the same range after you
Your payout if correct: Still $500 ✅

Locked in at bet time. No changes.

Sports:
- Game outcomes
- Point spreads
- Over/unders
- Props

Casino:
- Cards, dice, wheels
- Pre-programmed games
- Fixed rules, fixed odds

Limitations: Regulated events only

Anything with a measurable outcome:
- Crypto prices
- Stock prices
- Weather
- Economic indicators
- Product releases
- Election dates
- Scientific measurements
- Box office numbers
- And more...

If it's measurable and resolvable, there can be a market.

Sports betting: Some skill possible
- Line shopping
- Statistical modeling
- Injury information

Casino: Pure chance (mostly)
- House always has edge
- "Strategies" are mostly myths
- Skill ceiling: Low

Prediction markets: High skill ceiling
- Information gathering
- Probability estimation
- Range selection strategy
- Market timing

The better you predict, the more you profit.
No house edge eating your edge.

Chiefs vs 49ers, spread: Chiefs -1.5

Chiefs -1.5: -110 ($110 to win $100)
49ers +1.5: -110 ($110 to win $100)

Total implied probability: 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%
House edge: 4.8%

Final score: Chiefs 25, 49ers 22
Chiefs win by 3, covers spread

Market: "What will the Chiefs' margin of victory be?"

Loss by 7+:     8%
Loss by 1-6:    18%
Tie:            2%
Win by 1-6:     28%  ← You bet here
Win by 7-13:    25%
Win by 14+:     19%

Final: Chiefs win by 3
You bet on "Win by 1-6" at 3.5x odds
$100 → $350 payout ✅

All bettors collectively put in: $1,000,000
House takes: $50,000-$150,000
Bettors collectively receive: $850,000-$950,000

Average bettor: Loses 5-15% over time

All traders collectively put in: $1,000,000
Protocol fees: $3,000 (0.3%)
Traders collectively receive: $997,000

Average trader: Breaks even minus tiny fee
Skilled traders: Profit at expense of less skilled

- Designed to be addictive
- Near-misses engineered
- Complex payout structures
- Bonuses with hidden wagering requirements
- House always wins long-term

- Transparent odds
- Simple payout structure
- No artificial engagement hooks
- Fair pricing (market-driven)
- Skilled participants can profit