A complete guide to making your first prediction on Skepsis.
🧪 Testnet Mode: No real money required. Sign in with Google (gas sponsored) or connect a Sui wallet (get test SUI), claim free test USDC, and start predicting.
Overview
Placing a bet on Skepsis involves four simple steps:
- Choose a market — Find a prediction you have an opinion on
- Select your range — Define where you think the outcome will land
- Review your quote — See your exact odds and potential payout
- Confirm the bet — Execute the transaction
Let’s walk through each step.
Step 1: Choose a Market
Browse available markets on the Skepsis app.
What You’ll See
Each market card shows:
- Question: What’s being predicted
- Current distribution: Where the crowd thinks the answer is
- Time remaining: When the market resolves
- Liquidity: How much money is in the market
Market Types
| Type | Example | Typical Duration |
|---|
| Price | BTC/USD in 1 hour | Minutes to hours |
| Weather | Tomorrow’s high temp | Hours to days |
| Events | Product release date | Days to months |
Start with short-duration markets — You’ll see results faster and learn the mechanics quickly.
Step 2: Select Your Range
This is where Skepsis differs from traditional betting. Instead of a simple “Yes/No”, you define the exact outcome range you believe in.
The Range Selector
When you open a market, you’ll see a probability chart. Click and drag to select your range:
Range Selection Tips
| Range Width | Odds | Risk Level |
|---|
| Very narrow ($500) | 10-20x | 🔴 High risk |
| Moderate ($2,000) | 3-5x | 🟡 Medium risk |
| Wide ($5,000) | 1.5-2x | 🟢 Low risk |
Step 3: Review Your Quote
Before confirming, you’ll see a detailed quote on the right side of the screen.
Understanding the Quote
| Field | Meaning |
|---|
| Min/Max Price | The specific range you are betting on (e.g., $93.3K - $95.1K). |
| Your Bet | The amount of USDC you are risking (e.g., 100 USDC). |
| Win Probability | The market’s current estimated chance of the outcome landing in your range (e.g., 53.67%). |
| IF YOU WIN | The total amount you will receive if you are correct (e.g., $204.75). |
| Return | Your multiplier (e.g., 2.0x). This is your payout divided by your bet amount. |
Deterministic payouts: Unlike traditional betting, your payout is locked in at bet time. It won’t change regardless of future bets.
Step 4: Confirm the Bet
- Click “Place Bet”
- Your wallet will prompt you to sign the transaction
- Review the transaction details
- Click “Approve” in your wallet
Transaction Details
You’ll pay:
- Actual Cost: The exact cost to buy the position. This is often slightly less than your input amount (e.g., if you input 100 USDC, the actual cost might be 99.50 USDC). The unused difference never leaves your wallet.
- Network fee: ~0.001 SUI (negligible)
Why is the cost lower?
Due to the way our market maker (LMSR) calculates prices, we can’t always match your input amount exactly down to the cent. We buy as much as possible up to your limit. Any unused USDC never leaves your wallet.
What Happens Next
- ✅ Transaction confirmed on Sui blockchain
- ✅ Your position is created
- ✅ You can view it in “My Positions”
- ⏳ Wait for market resolution
After Placing Your Bet
Track Your Position
Go to “My Positions” to see:
- All your active bets
- Current probability of each range
- Potential payouts
- Time until resolution
Optional: Sell Early
You can sell your position before resolution:
- Click on your position
- Select “Sell”
- Review the quote (based on current market prices)
- Confirm the sale
Selling early gives you less than waiting for resolution if you win, but it lets you lock in partial profit or cut losses.
Claiming Winnings
After resolution:
- Check if the outcome landed in your range
- If yes, click “Claim Winnings”
- USDC is transferred to your wallet instantly
Example Walkthrough
Scenario: BTC 1-Hour Market
You believe: Bitcoin will stay between $96K-$98K in the next hour.
- Open the BTC 1-hour market
- Select range: $96,000 - $98,000
- Enter investment: $50 USDC
- Review quote:
- Odds: 2.1x
- Potential payout: $105
- Probability: ~48%
- Confirm bet
- Wait 1 hour
- Result: BTC closes at $97,200
- Claim your $105 USDC! 🎉
Common Questions
What if the outcome is exactly on my range boundary?
The lower bound is inclusive, upper bound is exclusive. So range 96,000−97,000:
- $96,000.00 → ✅ In range
- $96,999.99 → ✅ In range
- $97,000.00 → ❌ Not in range
Can I bet on multiple ranges?
Yes! You can place multiple bets on different ranges in the same market. This is a common hedging strategy.
What happens if I lose connection during the bet?
If the transaction was signed, it will complete. Check “My Positions” to verify. If it wasn’t signed, no USDC left your wallet.
Next Steps
