Core Concepts
Range
The span of values you’re betting on. For example, in a Bitcoin market, your range might be “$95,000 - $97,000”. If the final price lands anywhere within your range, you win.Bucket / Spread
The smallest unit of a range. Markets are divided into discrete buckets (e.g., each $100 increment for BTC). When you select a range, you’re actually selecting multiple adjacent buckets.Probability Distribution
A visualization showing how likely each outcome range is according to current market beliefs. Peaks indicate high-probability areas; valleys indicate low-probability areas (and potentially better odds).Resolution
The moment when the actual outcome is determined and reported. After resolution, winning positions can claim their payouts.Trading Terms
Position
Your stake in a market. When you bet on a range, you receive a position representing your potential claim to winnings.Odds / Multiplier
How much you’ll win relative to your bet. “5x odds” means a $100 bet wins $500 if correct.Quote
The instant price calculation showing what your bet will cost and what you’ll win. Quotes are generated in real-time based on current market state.Deterministic Payout
Your payout is fixed the moment you bet. Unlike traditional betting where payouts can change, Skepsis guarantees your exact winnings upfront.Shares
Internal accounting units representing your position size. Each share is worth exactly $1 if your range wins, $0 if it loses.Market Structure
Market
A single prediction question with a defined outcome range and resolution time. Example: “BTC price at 5:00 PM UTC on December 15th”Outcome Range
The full span of possible values for a market. For a BTC market, this might be $80,000 - $120,000.Bucket Count
How many discrete segments the outcome range is divided into. More buckets = finer granularity but potentially lower liquidity per bucket.Liquidity
The total funds available in a market for trading. Higher liquidity = tighter spreads and less price impact.Pool Balance
The total USDC held by the market smart contract, used to pay winners.Pricing & Economics
LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule)
The mathematical algorithm that determines prices. It ensures:- Always-available liquidity
- Prices that reflect current beliefs
- Bounded risk for the protocol
Alpha (α) / Liquidity Parameter
A value that controls how sensitive prices are to trades. Higher alpha = prices move less per trade = more stable but lower profit potential for early traders.Spread
The difference between what you pay to buy and what you’d receive to sell immediately. Think of it as the market’s “fee” embedded in prices.Slippage
The difference between the quoted price and the actual execution price. On Skepsis, slippage is minimal due to LMSR’s mathematical properties.Resolution Terms
Oracle
The trusted data source that reports the actual outcome. For price markets, this might be a price feed like Pyth or Chainlink.Resolution Time
The predetermined moment when the outcome is measured and winners are determined.Winning Bucket
The bucket (or range) where the actual outcome landed. All positions containing this bucket win.Claim
The action of withdrawing your winnings after resolution. Winners receive $1 per share they hold in winning buckets.Position Management
Buy
Opening a new position or adding to an existing one by paying USDC to receive shares.Sell
Closing part or all of your position before resolution by returning shares for USDC. The amount you receive depends on current market prices.Total Invested
The sum of USDC you’ve put into positions across all your bets in a market.Potential Payout
The maximum amount you could win if all your selected ranges contain the winning outcome.Technical Terms
Sui
The layer-1 blockchain Skepsis is built on. Known for high speed, low fees, and object-based architecture.USDC
The stablecoin used for betting on Skepsis. 1 USDC ≈ $1 USD.Transaction
An on-chain action like placing a bet or claiming winnings. Each transaction requires a small gas fee paid in SUI.Smart Contract
Self-executing code on the blockchain that manages markets, positions, and payouts. Skepsis contracts are open-source and auditable.Quick Reference Table
| Term | Simple Definition |
|---|---|
| Range | What you’re betting on (e.g., “$95K-$97K”) |
| Odds | Your multiplier if you win (e.g., “5x”) |
| Position | Your stake / bet |
| Resolution | When the winner is decided |
| Claim | Withdrawing your winnings |
| LMSR | The math that sets prices |
| Bucket | Smallest betting unit |
| Liquidity | Money in the market pool |
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