The Setup
It’s early 2025. The AI world is buzzing with GPT-5 speculation. Skepsis has a market:“When will OpenAI publicly release GPT-5?” Range: January 2025 - December 2026The probability distribution reflects current speculation:
Resolution: Official OpenAI announcement of public availability
Current Liquidity: $25,000 USDC
The Players
🔬 Dr. Chen: The Researcher
Dr. Chen follows AI papers closely. She’s noticed a pattern: OpenAI’s release cycles are accelerating. Her thesis: “GPT-4 to GPT-4 Turbo was 6 months. GPT-4 Turbo to GPT-4o was 7 months. They’re speeding up. Summer 2025 is realistic.” Her bet:- Range: June - September 2025
- Investment: $500 USDC
- Odds received: 2.8x
- Potential payout: $1,400 if mid-2025 release
📰 Alex: The News Junkie
Alex reads every AI newsletter and follows all the insiders on Twitter. He’s seen leaked roadmaps suggesting a Q4 2025 release. His thesis: “Multiple credible sources point to fall 2025. The enterprise contracts are already being negotiated.” His bet:- Range: October - December 2025
- Investment: $300 USDC
- Odds received: 3.3x
- Potential payout: $990 if Q4 2025 release
🤔 Sarah: The Skeptic
Sarah works at a competing AI lab. She knows how hard scaling is. Her thesis: “Everyone’s too optimistic. GPT-5 will face safety reviews, compute constraints, and enterprise readiness issues. It’s a 2026 story.” Her bet:- Range: January - June 2026
- Investment: $400 USDC
- Odds received: 5.5x
- Potential payout: $2,200 if delayed to 2026
🚀 Marcus: The Hype Believer
Marcus follows Sam Altman’s every tweet. He interprets recent cryptic posts as hints at an imminent release. His thesis: “Altman’s been teasing something big. They’re going to surprise everyone with a Q1 2025 drop.” His bet:- Range: January - March 2025
- Investment: $100 USDC
- Odds received: 20x
- Potential payout: $2,000 if surprise early release
Time Passes…
March 2025
OpenAI announces “GPT-4.5”—an incremental update. Not GPT-5. Marcus’s hopes dim. Market update:July 2025
Leaked benchmarks suggest GPT-5 is in final testing. Dr. Chen’s window is closing.October 2025
OpenAI schedules a “major product announcement” for November 15th.November 15, 2025 - Resolution
Sam Altman takes the stage: “Today, we’re releasing GPT-5 to the world.” Official release date: November 15, 2025The Results
| Player | Range | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dr. Chen | Jun-Sep 2025 | ❌ LOSE | 2 months too early |
| Alex | Oct-Dec 2025 | ✅ WIN | Nailed it! |
| Sarah | Jan-Jun 2026 | ❌ LOSE | Too pessimistic |
| Marcus | Jan-Mar 2025 | ❌ LOSE | Way too optimistic |
The Lessons
1. Time Ranges Need Buffer Room
Dr. Chen’s analysis was solid, but she didn’t leave buffer room for delays. A range of June-December 2025 (lower odds but higher coverage) might have been smarter.| Strategy | Range | Odds | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Precise | Jun-Sep 2025 | 2.8x | ❌ |
| Buffered | Jun-Dec 2025 | 1.8x | ✅ |
2. Leaks Are Signal, Not Noise
Alex’s “news junkie” approach worked because he triangulated multiple sources. When several independent sources point to the same timeframe, that’s valuable alpha.3. Expert Knowledge Cuts Both Ways
Sarah’s insider knowledge made her too pessimistic. She knew all the reasons things could go wrong—but didn’t account for OpenAI’s competitive pressure to ship.4. Hype Cycles Are Predictable
Marcus fell for the classic hype trap: interpreting ambiguous signals as confirmation of what he wanted to believe. In prediction markets, wishful thinking is expensive.Why Date Markets Are Special
Date prediction markets have unique properties:| Property | Implication |
|---|---|
| Time decay | As time passes, probabilities shift automatically |
| News sensitivity | Single announcement can resolve the market |
| Range selection psychology | ”Q4 2025” feels different than “Oct-Dec 2025” even though they’re the same |
| Anchoring effects | Round dates (Jan 1, Q1, etc.) often get overweighted |
Pro Tip: Avoid Round Number Bias
Markets often overprice round dates:- “Q1 2025” ≠ exactly January-March
- Companies release when ready, not when calendars say so
- Mid-quarter releases are underpriced
Build Your AI Release Watchlist
Skepsis markets you might find interesting:- 📱 Apple AI features release dates
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- 🔬 Next major model from Anthropic, Google, Meta
Try it free on testnet. Sign in with Google, claim test USDC, and bet on your AI predictions. No real money, no gas fees.Launch Skepsis →
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