What is a Range?
A range is a span of values where you believe the outcome will land. Example: In a BTC price market with range $90,000 - $110,000:- You select: $96,000 - $98,000
- This means: “I believe BTC will be somewhere between $96K and $98K at resolution”
How Ranges Work
Deep Dive: How Ranges are Calculated (Buckets)
Deep Dive: How Ranges are Calculated (Buckets)
Every market is divided into discrete buckets (also called “spreads”).Example:
- Market: BTC Price ($90K - $110K)
- Buckets: 200 (each bucket = $100 width)
Range Width vs Odds Trade-off
This is the most important concept in Skepsis trading: Width = Probability.| Range Type | Width | Win Probability | Odds | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narrow | $500 | ~12% (Low) | 8.0x | High |
| Medium | $2,000 | ~45% (Medium) | 2.2x | Medium |
| Wide | $5,000 | ~78% (High) | 1.3x | Low |
Strategic Range Selection
The Sniper
Approach: Very narrow range, high conviction.Best for: Expert analysis, insider edge.Risk: High
Reward: Very High (10x+)
The Zone Player
Approach: Medium range, balanced view.Best for: General directional bets.Risk: Medium
Reward: Balanced (3-5x)
The Safe Player
Approach: Wide range, high probability.Best for: Bankroll building, hedging.Risk: Low
Reward: Steady (1.2-2x)
Strategy Examples
- Sniper Example
- Zone Example
- Safe Example
Scenario: BTC at $97,000, big news expected.
- Range: $97,400 - $97,600 (Width: $200)
- Odds: 15x
- Outcome: If BTC hits $97,500, you turn $100 into $1,500.
Range Positioning
Where you place your range matters as much as how wide it is.Centering vs. Directional
Assuming Current BTC Price: $97,000- Centered Range ($96k - $98k): Betting on “no big move”. You win if the price stays stable.
- Bullish Range ($97.5k - $99.5k): Betting on a “modest up move”. You need the price to rise slightly.
- Bearish Range ($94.5k - $96.5k): Betting on a “modest down move”. You need the price to fall slightly.
Tail Betting
“Tail bets” are wagers on unlikely, extreme outcomes.- Left Tail ($90k - $93k): The “Crash Bet.” Pays 20x+ if the market collapses.
- Right Tail ($102k - $105k): The “Moon Bet.” Pays 25x+ if the market rallies hard.
Tail bets are high-risk, high-reward. Treat them like lottery tickets: fun money only.
Multi-Range Strategy (Hedging)
You can place multiple bets on different ranges.Example: Barbell Strategy
Common Mistakes
Range Too Narrow
Problem: “I’ll bet on exactly $97,000 - $97,100” Reality: Unless you have incredible edge, a $100 range is almost never worth it. The odds might be 50x, but the probability is ~2%. Fix: Widen to at least $500-$1,000 for short-term markets.Ignoring the Distribution
Problem: Selecting a range without looking at current probabilities. Reality: A range with 3% market probability might be there for a reason, or it might be a genuine opportunity. Fix: Always check the distribution chart. Ask: “Why is this range priced this way?”Chasing High Odds
Problem: “25x odds! I’ll be rich!” Reality: 25x odds = ~4% probability. You’ll likely lose 24 out of 25 times. Fix: Calculate expected value, not just potential payout.Over-Hedging
Problem: Betting on too many ranges to “cover everything.” Reality: Overlapping bets can guarantee losses. Fix: Use hedging strategically, not defensively.Quick Reference: Range Selection Cheat Sheet
| Your Confidence | Recommended Width | Expected Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ”I’m certain” | 2-3 buckets | 10-15x |
| ”Pretty sure” | 5-10 buckets | 4-8x |
| ”I have a view” | 15-25 buckets | 2-4x |
| ”Just playing” | 30+ buckets | 1.5-2x |
Next Steps
| Reading Odds | How odds are calculated from probabilities | Reading Odds |
| Strategies | Advanced betting strategies | Strategies |