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One of Skepsis’s most powerful features: you know exactly what you’ll win before you bet.

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The Problem with Traditional Betting

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Parimutuel Systems (Horse Racing, etc.)

In traditional parimutuel betting: 
You bet $100 on Horse A at "5x odds"
1,000 other people also bet on Horse A
Final odds: 2.5x (your payout got cut in half!)
Why? Because payouts are calculated after all bets are placed. More bets on your selection = smaller share of the pool.

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Traditional Prediction Markets

Even some prediction markets have this issue: 
You buy "Yes" at $0.60 (implied 60% probability)
Market moves to $0.80
If you win, you still get $1.00 per share
But if you try to sell early, dynamics get complicated

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How Skepsis Works: Deterministic Payouts

When you place a bet on Skepsis, your payout is locked in immediately. 
You bet $100 on range $96K-$97K
Quote shows: 3.2x odds, $320 payout

→ If the outcome lands in $96K-$97K, you receive exactly $320
→ This is guaranteed, no matter what happens next

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Why This Matters

FeatureParimutuelSkepsis
Payout known at bet time❌ No✅ Yes
Payout changes with more bets✅ Yes❌ No
Can calculate exact profit❌ No✅ Yes
Position is transferable❌ No✅ Yes

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The Math Behind Deterministic Payouts

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Your Claim is Fixed

When you bet, you are buying a fixed claim on the prize pool. 
Investment: $100
Odds: 3.2x
Guaranteed Payout: $320

If your range wins, you get $320.

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Why It Doesn’t Change

Once you buy this claim, it is yours.
  • Other people betting doesn’t reduce your claim
  • Market movements don’t reduce your claim
  • Time passing doesn’t reduce your claim
Your $320 payout is locked. Always.

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What Happens to Prices After Your Bet?

When you bet $100 on a range:

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1. Your Bet Moves Prices

Before: $96K-$97K at 25% probability, 4x odds
Your bet: $100
After: $96K-$97K at 28% probability, 3.57x odds

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2. But Your Payout Doesn’t Change

You locked in: 4x odds, $400 payout
New bettors get: 3.57x odds, $357 payout per $100
Your payout: Still $400 ✅

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3. Future Bets Don’t Affect You

10 more people bet $1000 each on your range
New odds: 2.5x
Your payout: Still $400 ✅

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The Trade-Off: Early vs Late Betting

Deterministic payouts create interesting dynamics:

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Early Bettors

  • ✅ Get better odds (prices haven’t moved yet)
  • ❌ Take more risk (less information)
  • ✅ Payout is locked regardless of future activity

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Late Bettors

  • ❌ Get worse odds (prices already moved)
  • ✅ Have more information
  • ✅ Still get deterministic payout at their price
This is fair: Early bettors are rewarded for taking risk earlier.

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Practical Example: BTC Market

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Scenario: $10,000 Liquidity Market

Initial state (no bets yet):
$95K-$96K: 20% prob, 5x odds
$96K-$97K: 25% prob, 4x odds  ← Alice bets here
$97K-$98K: 25% prob, 4x odds  ← Bob bets here later
$98K-$99K: 20% prob, 5x odds
$99K-$100K: 10% prob, 10x odds

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Alice Bets First

Alice: $200 on $96K-$97K
Odds at bet time: 4x
Shares received: 800
Guaranteed payout: $800
After Alice's bet:
$96K-$97K: 32% prob, 3.1x odds

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Bob Bets Second

Bob: $200 on $97K-$98K
Odds at bet time: 3.8x (slightly worse due to Alice's bet shifting things)
Shares received: 760
Guaranteed payout: $760

After Bob's bet:
$97K-$98K: 30% prob, 3.3x odds

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Charlie Bets Last

Charlie: $200 on $96K-$97K (same range as Alice!)
Odds at bet time: 2.8x (worse than Alice got)
Shares received: 560
Guaranteed payout: $560

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Resolution: BTC = $96,500

Winner: $96K-$97K range

Alice: Bet $200, wins $800 (4x) ✅
Bob: Bet $200, wins $0 ❌
Charlie: Bet $200, wins $560 (2.8x) ✅

Alice got better odds because she bet first!

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Selling Before Resolution

You can sell your shares before the market resolves.

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How Selling Works

Your position: 320 shares in $96K-$97K
Current market price: $0.28 per share
If you sell now: 320 × $0.28 = $89.60

You locked in at $0.3125/share, so this is a small loss
But if you think the range won't hit, selling is smart

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Why Sell Early?

  • Lock in profit if prices moved in your favor
  • Cut losses if you changed your mind
  • Free up capital for a better opportunity

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Selling Is Also Deterministic

Sell quote: 320 shares at $0.28 = $89.60
If you confirm, you receive exactly $89.60
This amount won't change after you confirm

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Summary: What “Deterministic” Really Means

EventPayout Impact
Someone else bets on your rangeNone
Someone else bets on other rangesNone
Market liquidity changesNone
Time passesNone
Price feeds updateNone
You sell earlyYou get quoted amount
Market resolves in your rangeYou get guaranteed payout
Market resolves outside your rangeYou get $0
Your payout is determined the moment you bet. That’s the power of deterministic payouts.

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Why This Matters for Strategy

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1. No Need to Monitor Post-Bet

Once you bet, you can close the app. Your payout is locked.

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2. Easy Portfolio Tracking

You know exactly how much you could win across all positions.

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3. Fair Early Bird Rewards

Getting in early matters—you get better odds for taking risk with less information.

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4. True Position Ownership

Your shares are yours. They can even be transferred or traded.

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Next Steps

Market TypesDifferent markets, same deterministic payoutsMarket Types
StrategiesUse deterministic payouts to your advantageStrategies