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The curve is the crowd’s view

Each market shows a distribution across buckets: the crowd’s current estimate of where the number lands. A tall bucket is a confident consensus. A flat curve is low conviction.

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What to look for

  • A peak that looks too narrow: the crowd may be overconfident, and a wider band underpriced.
  • A flat region where you have a real read: an underweighted bucket pays more for the same outcome.
  • Recent moves: the curve updates as others trade, and a fresh shift can leave a bucket mispriced for a moment.

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From curve to position

Pick the band you believe the outcome lands in, then check the live payoff the app quotes. Tighter band, larger payoff, lower hit probability. Your edge is a range you think is underpriced relative to where it actually lands. See placing a trade.