
Open a market
Pick a market from alpha.skepsis.live/markets. Each market shows the current distribution across buckets.
Choose your range
Select the bucket or band you expect the outcome to land in. A tighter range pays more, because it is harder to hit.
Set your size
Enter the amount of USDC. The app shows your payoff before you confirm: what you receive if the outcome lands in your range.
What you are paid
If the outcome lands in your range, you are paid in proportion to how tight your range was. At a uniform prior, a 1-bucket pick on a 10-bucket market pays 10x; a 2-bucket pick pays 5x. Payoff = N / k, for k of N buckets. The price moves as others trade, so the quote you see is the quote at that moment. The payoff shown at confirmation is the payoff you lock in for that trade.Selling early
You can close a position before resolution at the current price, the same way you opened it. You do not have to wait for the market to settle.Liquidity is bootstrapped on testnet. On thin markets, large trades move the price; size accordingly.