Skepsis vs Polymarket

"Will Bitcoin hit $100K by January 1?"
├── Yes: 47%
└── No: 53%

One data point. Cross threshold or don't.

"Where will Bitcoin be on January 1?"
├── $80K-$90K:   5%
├── $90K-$95K:   12%
├── $95K-$100K:  25%
├── $100K-$105K: 30%  ← Most likely
├── $105K-$110K: 18%
└── $110K+:      10%

Full probability landscape visible.

You bet YES on "BTC > $100K by Jan 1"
BTC on Jan 1: $99,500

Result: You LOSE
Reality: You were basically right about the price

You bet on "$95K - $105K" range
BTC on Jan 1: $99,500

Result: You WIN ✅
Reality: Your prediction was accurate

"BTC > $100K?" = 47% Yes

You know: ~47% chance of crossing $100K
You don't know:
- Will it be $100,001 or $200,000?
- How confident is the market?
- What about $95K? $90K?

Full distribution visible:
- Expected value: ~$101,500
- Mode (most likely): $100K-$105K
- 90% confidence interval: $88K-$115K
- Tail risk: 5% chance of <$85K
- Uncertainty: Distribution is fairly wide

Step 1: Find "BTC > $95K?" market → Buy Yes
Step 2: Find "BTC > $105K?" market → Buy No
Step 3: Hope both markets exist and have liquidity
Step 4: Manage two positions
Step 5: Pay fees twice

Step 1: Select $95K-$105K range
Step 2: Place bet
Done.

Pros:
+ Tight spreads on popular markets
+ Professional market makers participate

Cons:
- Orders can go unfilled
- Spread varies by market
- Less liquid markets have wide spreads

Pros:
+ Always liquid (any size, any time)
+ Mathematically guaranteed solvency
+ Consistent pricing model

Cons:
- Spreads depend on alpha parameter
- Less efficient for very large trades

You buy Yes at $0.47
Market moves, Yes now at $0.52
If you sell: Get $0.52 (profit!)
If you hold to resolution: Get $1 (if Yes) or $0 (if No)

You buy 100 shares at $0.32/share
Market moves, price now $0.40/share
Your payout if you win: Still $100 (locked in!)

Gas fees: Very low (~$0.01)
Transaction speed: ~2 seconds
Wallet: MetaMask, etc.
Currency: USDC on Polygon

Gas fees: Very low (~$0.001)
Transaction speed: <1 second
Wallet: Sui Wallet, Suiet
Currency: USDC on Sui

Market 1: "BTC > $80K?" → 89% Yes
Market 2: "BTC > $100K?" → 52% Yes
Market 3: "BTC > $120K?" → 28% Yes
Market 4: "BTC > $150K?" → 12% Yes

To understand the distribution:
- Manually calculate ranges from thresholds
- Hope all threshold markets exist
- Deal with different liquidities per market

"Where will BTC be Dec 31, 2025?"

$60K-$80K:   8%
$80K-$100K:  35%
$100K-$120K: 30%
$120K-$150K: 18%
$150K+:      9%

Full distribution. One glance. One market.