Skepsis vs Kalshi

✅ CFTC regulated (legal clarity in US)
✅ FDIC-insured deposits
❌ US residents only
❌ Full KYC required
❌ Some markets restricted
❌ Withdrawal limits for new users

✅ Accessible globally
✅ No KYC (wallet-based)
✅ Self-custody of funds
✅ No withdrawal limits
❌ Regulatory uncertainty in some jurisdictions
❌ No FDIC insurance

Most Kalshi markets:
"Will [X] happen?" → Yes/No

Examples:
- "Will Fed raise rates in March?"
- "Will [movie] gross $100M opening?"
- "Will unemployment be below 4%?"

Skepsis markets:
"What will [X] be?" → Range selection

Examples:
- "Where will rates be after Fed meeting?"
- "What will [movie] opening gross be?"
- "What will unemployment be?"

Pros:
+ Clean, professional UI
+ USD deposits via bank transfer
+ Customer support
+ Mobile app

Cons:
- 2-3 day withdrawal times
- Verification process takes days
- Limited to approved markets
- Trading hours restrictions on some markets

Pros:
+ Instant deposits/withdrawals
+ Trade 24/7
+ No verification wait
+ Full transparency (on-chain)

Cons:
- Requires crypto knowledge
- Need to manage own wallet
- USDC on Sui (not USD directly)

Trading fee: 1-7% (varies by market)
Withdrawal fee: $0 (but slow)
Deposit fee: $0

Trading fee: 0.3% flat
Withdrawal: Gas only (~$0.001)
Deposit: Gas only (~$0.001)

All markets created by Kalshi
Requires CFTC approval process
Limited market variety
Professional market design

Anyone can create markets
No approval needed
Infinite variety possible
Quality varies

Your money held by: Kalshi Inc.
Protected by: CFTC regulation, FDIC
Risk: Platform risk, regulatory risk
Recourse: Legal system

Your money held by: Smart contracts
Protected by: Math (LMSR solvency)
Risk: Smart contract risk
Recourse: Code is law

Market: "Will December CPI be above 3.0%?"

Buy Yes at $0.65 → Win $1 if CPI > 3.0%
Buy No at $0.35 → Win $1 if CPI ≤ 3.0%

Information: 65% think CPI > 3.0%
Missing: What if CPI is 3.5%? 4.0%? 2.8%?

Market: "What will December CPI be?"

2.0-2.5%:  5%
2.5-3.0%:  25%
3.0-3.5%:  40%  ← Most likely
3.5-4.0%:  22%
4.0%+:     8%

Information: Full distribution
- Expected CPI: ~3.2%
- Most likely range: 3.0-3.5%
- Tail risk visible

✓ Clear legal standing in US
✓ Can advertise openly
✓ Bank partnerships
✓ Institutional participation

Decentralized protocol on Sui
Not a US company
No central operator to regulate
Users bear their own regulatory risk