Skip to main content

​
What Skepsis is

Skepsis is a continuous-outcome prediction market. Instead of yes or no, you price the range a number lands in. A tighter range pays more, because it is harder to hit. Binary markets price direction. They pay nothing when the number lands a tick off the strike. Skepsis prices magnitude, so the payoff scales with how close you are. That gap, between the outcome you priced and the outcome that paid, is basis risk. Skepsis closes it.
Price the number, not the direction.

​
One worked example

Bitcoin is at $95,000. You expect it to close the month between $98,000 and $99,000.
Binary marketSkepsis
The questionWill BTC close above $97k?Where does BTC close?
Your positionYesRange: $98k to $99k
Outcome $120kYou win the sameYou do not win
Outcome $98.5kYou winYou win, and precision paid
On the binary, “stops at $98.5k” is priced the same as “runs to $120k”. Skepsis pays for being right about how much. At a uniform prior, a band covering a tenth of the likely range pays about ten times your stake, because it is harder to hit. Precision is the edge.
Binary step payoff versus Skepsis continuous payoff

​
Two ideas to take away

Every range is tradable

Range, time, and one-of-N options markets, priced on one continuous curve. Any number you have a view on.

One vault behind every market

A single ERC-4626 vault seeds every market and recycles capital on resolution. No dead pools.

​
The essentials

  • Chain: Arbitrum Sepolia. Resolution: Chainlink, numerical and time-gated.
  • Pricing: LMSR over a bucket tree. Positions: ERC-1155. Liquidity: one ERC-4626 vault.
  • A curated set of live markets across crypto and macro. Numerical outcomes only.
  • Private beta. Access opens in waves.

Start trading

Claim test USDC and take your first position. About a minute.