| Binary | Skepsis | |
|---|---|---|
| Question | CPI above 3.0%? | Where does CPI print? |
| Your position | No | Range: 2.8% to 3.2% |
| Outcome 2.9% | Wins the same as any “below” | Precise. Your band pays |
| Outcome 1.5% | You win | Outside your band. You do not win |
Examples
Example: CPI print
Express a precise CPI view, not just above or below a line.
The next CPI print is expected near 3.0 percent. A binary market asks whether CPI comes in above 3.0 percent. Your read is tighter: 2.8 to 3.2 percent.
Binary collapses the whole distribution to one line. A trader who modeled 2.9 percent earns the same as one who guessed “below.” Skepsis pays for the precise read. This is the macro use case: express the full view, not a coin flip.